David’s 2009 predictions – part 1

January 23, 2009 at 2:04 pm Leave a comment

I see... yes... wait...

Yes, I know that 2009 has already begun, but I also realize you were probably tired of reading predictions from pseudo-pundits back in December, so I decided to wait a few weeks before publishing mine. Do I have greater prognosticative abilities than anyone else? Probably not. But I am a keen observer of human nature (being the third of three boys, I needed to stay on my toes or risk getting slapped in the head by my older brothers), so I believe these predictions will come true. At the very least, I will try to provide an entertaining read.

We shall revisit these next January to see how close I got. In the meantime, here’s Part 1 of my 2009 predictions:

1. The recession will end by the late spring.

Most economists agree that the recession actually started in December 2007, not in the fall of 2008. There have been 10 post-WWII recessions which have lasted an average of 10.4 months, the longest lasting 16 months. If the current economic downturn lasts 16 months, we’ll be back on the road to recovery by April. Chin up.

2. MySpace is so 2008. Twitter is so 2009.

Can Twitter change the face of social networking, 140 characters at a time? Perhaps. So far, I’ve had very good initial success with using Twitter as a supplement to other marketing activities. Its appeal is the ability to enable personalized, instant communication between customers and companies. Sure, you can’t engage in deep, content-rich conversations, but that’s not the point. You can always link to other sources for that. If you’re looking to join Twitter, create an account and follow me – I’ll walk you through it.

3. Microsoft will buy Yahoo!

Conditions are a lot more favorable now for a purchase of Yahoo! than they were when Microsoft made its initial bid in mid-2008. In hindsight, I’m sure Steve Ballmer is thanking his lucky stars that CEO Jerry Yang turned down his $44.6 billion bid. The current market value of Yahoo! is 60% lower than the bid value, and the company continues to struggle keeping up with Google. Combine a lower stock price, lower market share, recent layoffs of 1,500 employees, and the ouster of Yang (undoubtedly for putting his ego ahead of his stockholders), and it’s more a question of ‘when’ rather than ‘if.’ Sorry, Yahooies, but as much as you hate Redmond, you’ll call it home in 2009.

I’ll bring you Part 2 of my predictions next week. Have a great weekend!

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Entry filed under: Entertainment, Industry News, Leadership & Management, LinkedIn, Marketing, Predictions, Raising Awareness, Social Networking, Strategy, Technology & IT. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

‘Phoning It In’ – world premiere! David’s 2009 predictions – part 2

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